Friday, December 15, 2006

Blogging set to peak in 2007

Just the other day, a friend remarked that blogging might just soon fade away as one other technological phenomena that created waves. It was, of course, a remark made without any study, as he himself said. It was more of a perception-based personal view. I countered his argument. Blogging is not a flash-in-the-pan phenomenon. It is not going to fade away.

My view was, and still is, that the casual bloggers may fade out, those who just came to see what it is all about and didn't find it exciting. But blogging as a powerful media of mass communication -- a democratisation of publishing -- will stay on. The excitement of the new medium may wear out, but the medium is only going to get stronger.

Call it coincidence: BBC has a story on this based on a study by Gartner. It says 200 million people have stopped writing blogs. It says, by next year the number of blogs will level out at around 100 million. The reason: all those who wanted blog have started, those who like it will keep blogging and the rest will stop.

Again not based on any research, but I have a feeling that the number could still increase. Because as more children grow up and become aware of the medium, many would get on it and a good percentage may just stay on as well. Also, Gartner predicts that the cost of a PC will come down by 50 per cent by 2010. That will be additional reason for people to start blogging, especially in developing countries.

11 comments:

  1. Like the dotcom era, consolidation will happen in 2007...consistent ones will live on!

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  2. Kishore: My feeling is that the boom period is over. Once many people didn't even know it. Not now. But definitely there'sn't going to be anything like a bust.

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  3. Blogging is here to stay.. it might evolve into different forms and medium (like podcasts and all that), but the basic thing called blogging will not go!

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  4. Very true, I fully agree, Kishore.

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  5. Blogging will be here and will stay. In fact, as it becomes easier to blog from devices other than PC's, the number of blogs will only increase

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  6. Ashish: Yes, blogging is becoming easier. So, I don't even think the numbers will go down.

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  7. Obviously many of the developing nations are yet to use the blogging medium in a big way. As you pointed out it is bound to increase before an equilibrium is reached between abandoned blogs and new blogs :)

    I think another phenomenon that is going to happen is that lot of blogs will become more targeted to a specific subject.

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  8. Chacko: More blogs targeted at specific audience: yes, that is a distinct possibility. I remember a doctor's blog (never bothered to note down the URL) in which he talks about his experiences with patients. There are also now business, sports blogs.

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  9. I already know a lot of people who have stopped updating their blogs. This was anticipated by the experts on the Internet.

    My thinking on this matter is that one can never maintain a blog unless one enjoys writing. If you see around you will notice that people who originally are not inclined to write find it difficult to keep their blog updated.

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