Is the Israel-Iran war nearing an end?

A residential building in Be'er Sheva, Israel, damaged in Iranian attack on June 20. 
REUTERS/Amir Cohen 

Every time I check my phone, there are notifications from media organisations or journalists about some development in the Middle East (or West Asia, as we call it here).

None of the updates are positive. On the contrary, most of them are disturbing.

There’s so much at stake that these tit-for-tat strikes by Israel and Iran, which are becoming more horrific by the day, simply cannot be allowed to spiral out of control, if they haven’t already.

This Israel-Iran war is the third major conflict underway. There is already Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas/Hezbollah hostilities.

Regime change?

Judging by the latest developments, I get a feeling that a regime change in Iran could be on the horizon. 

How and when that might happen, a very crucial element, remains uncertain and speculative.

Or, that might not happen, in lieu of something else that might satisfy Israel who are keen on it. 

The building of Iran’s State TV broadcaster which was targetted by Israel on June 19.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Exit route

While there’s a lot of public posturing from all sides, quiet backroom negotiations are also happening behind the scenes, aimed at reining in both Israel and Iran.

In any conflict, one of the core objectives of diplomacy is to find a face-saving exit route for all parties involved. But, that's the toughest part.

It may be somewhat easier for Israel to pull back, but what would Iran tell its people if it does the same?

Iran had said it would consider talks only if Israel stops firing at its territory. Perhaps Israel could declare it has achieved its objectives (it has, more or less, is it not?) and pause, if not completely cease, its attacks.

If an exit path is found, all sides can claim victory, and the war could come to an end. The world would then be able to breathe a collective sigh of relief.

'Israel wants to end the war'

The Wall Street Journal has a story quoting Israeli and Arab sources, that Israel has conveyed a message to Iran, through intermediaries, that it is looking to end the war soon.

Could this be a sign that we are finally nearing the end of this conflict?

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Beyond Boeing and Airbus

For Boeing, the American aerospace giant, it has been a really turbulent journey. Over the last seven years, its planes have been involved in several fatal accidents. 

The most well-known are the two 737 MAX crashes (2018-19), the crash of a Boeing 737-800 in 2024, and now the Ahmedabad disaster, the first fatal crash involving a Dreamliner.

In contrast, Airbus, Boeing’s European rival, has not had any major fatal accidents involving new commercial jets during this same period. Most serious Airbus incidents occurred before 2015.

Besides, Boeing reported a loss of $11.8 billion last year, pushing its total losses since 2019 to more than $35 billion.

The Ahmedabad crash

As you may recall, the aircraft involved in the Ahmedabad crash was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner. Flight AI 171 had a normal takeoff from Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, at 1.38 pm on June 12, but within just 36 seconds, something went terribly wrong.

The pilot issued a mayday call to the Air Traffic Control. 

Photo credit: PTI

The aircraft, heading to London Gatwick and carrying 230 passengers and 12 crew members, began losing altitude and descended, but over a residential area. 

It crashlanded on a hostel for doctors and soon caught fire. The horrific images of towering flames and thick black smoke, which were playing on the television, are still vivid in my mind.

Only one passenger survived: Ramesh Viswash Kumar, a UK citizen and resident of Leicester. 

Charred bodies are being identified through DNA samples of the next of kin. As of today, only about 177 have been identified. The identification process, and the agonising wait for families, will take several more days.

Both the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder (the black boxes) have been recovered. Investigators hope they will reveal what actually happened and put to rest the many theories circulating since the day of the crash.

Airbus pulls ahead

Boeing was founded in 1916 by William E. Boeing. It began as Pacific Aero Products and was renamed Boeing Airplane Company a year later.

Airbus entered the picture much later, in 1970, as a European consortium. 

Despite this late start, Airbus has now overtaken Boeing in many key metrics. For example, last year, Airbus delivered 766 aircraft, while Boeing managed only 348.

Alternatives to Boeing and Airbus

There are a few, but none can match the scale and volume of these two, to meet the global demand.

So, at least for now, it's just Boeing and Airbus.

However, there are two -- a Chinese and a Brazilian -- steadily ramping up their production. Looks like, with time, the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus might face a real challenge.

COMAC: China’s contender

A company with the potential to disrupt the Boeing-Airbus duopoly is COMAC, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China.

Founded in 2008, COMAC is a state-owned enterprise based in Shanghai. 

Since becoming operational, C919 has carried
more than 1 million passengers. Photo credit: COMAC

Its flagship aircraft is the C919, a narrow-body, single-aisle jetliner that seats 158 to 192 passengers. It entered commercial service only in 2023 and currently serves major Chinese airlines.

COMAC is also working on a wide-body jet called the C929, which will seat 280 to 320 passengers and is designed for long-haul routes. However, it is still under development.

Additionally, COMAC has a short-to-medium range regional aircraft, the C909, with seating for 78 to 97 passengers.

Given China's rapid strides in science, technology, and global influence, COMAC seems well positioned to become a serious alternative to Boeing and Airbus.

Embraer: Brazil’s star

Another noteworthy player is Embraer, a Brazilian company that has delivered over 9,000 aircraft to customers in more than 100 countries. It is currently the world’s third-largest commercial aircraft manufacturer.

Founded in 1969 by the Brazilian military government, with former Air Force officer Ozires Silva playing a key role, Embraer is based in São José dos Campos.

Embraer is known for its E-Jet family, the E170, E175, E190, and E195, as well as its newer E2 series. These regional jets seat fewer than 150 passengers and are in operation around the world.

Photo credit: The Hindu

In India, Embraer has a strong presence, with around 50 aircraft operating in various sectors. Bengaluru-based Star Air, for instance, operates nine Embraer jets across 22 Indian destinations from its hubs in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Belagavi.

While Embraer has no plans to build wide-body aircraft, it is exploring the possibility of developing a larger narrow-body jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families.

Given its presence in various countries, Embraer might not find it too difficult to diversify and offer customers a good alternative.

Duopoly might not last

While Boeing and Airbus are still the only companies that can meet large-scale global demand, the future may see more competition, especially as global air travel continues to grow, and with an increased focus on diversification and regional connectivity.

COMAC, with its ambitious plans and government backing, could eventually challenge the duopoly, while Embraer, eyeing expansion, remains a strong player in the regional jet segment.

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You may like to read: The Maharaja is back home (October 12, 2021) on Tatas getting back the ownership of Air India after the Union government privatised the airline.

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India’s falling fertility rate: Should we be worried or relieved?

If you asked someone, “What’s the biggest challenge India is facing today?” chances are high that you’d hear: overpopulation.

From traffic jams and garbage dumps to unemployment and corruption, so many of our problems seem to link back to too many people.

Since 2023, India has held the title of the world’s most populous country, with an estimated 1.46 billion people, overtaking China which has around 1.41 billion. 

But now, something significant has happened, quietly but surely: India’s fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level for the first time in history.

What low fertility rate means

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime. 

The replacement level, which is 2.1, is the average number of children that is needed for a population to replace itself without migration. 

India’s TFR is now 1.9.

In the 1950s, our TFR was around 6.2. That’s a huge shift.

South Indian states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have led the decline, while northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar still have higher fertility rates.

Why fertility rate has dropped

There are several reasons:

* Cost of living has been going up, but income has been rising much slowly

* There is better access to education and careers for both women and men

* Attitudes towards marriage and parenting have been changing

* More people are choosing to marry later, or not at all

Today’s millennials and Gen Z simply don’t feel the same pressure to start large families. Some don’t want children at all, while many prefer to raise just one.

Low fertility rate: good or bad?

Well, it has some benefits:

• Fewer people means less demand for resources, infrastructure, and public services
  
  
• Families and governments can invest more in each child’s health and education
  
  
• Quality of life gets better

But there’s a flip side too:

• Number of older people will steadily become more than younger ones. By 2050, over 20% of Indians will be senior citizens, that is double the current figure
   
• Fewer working-age people may impact productivity and economic growth
  
  
• More elderly people could also mean higher spending on healthcare, pensions, and social support
  
  
• Loneliness, already a big problem, may get just worse

Have more kids?

India’s historic family planning campaign, launched in 1952, carried slogans like Hum do, hamaare do (We two, our two) to encourage smaller families. It seems to have worked. In fact, the slogan gradually became Hum do, hamaare ek (We two, our one). 

Over the past year, there have been suggestions from some leaders that the trend has to be reversed.

In December last year, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat said families should have at least three children, warning that a fertility rate below 2.1 could spell the extinction of communities.

Over the past few months, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has been echoing similar thoughts. “I used to advocate family planning. Now I’m promoting population growth. India’s biggest strength is its demographic dividend. If we manage it well, our future is bright.”

He’s even hinted at financial incentives for larger families.

While such voices are still few, they’re becoming louder, and some of their warnings feel a bit alarmist.

Do we need to panic?

Not really.

Even though TFR is now below 2.1, India’s population is expected to keep growing until around 2065, reaching a peak of 1.7 billion. A decline will begin only after that, and any major negative effects will take even longer to appear.

So, while this shift is historic and important, there’s no need to rush into drastic policy changes.

What should we do?

Instead of pushing people to have more children, we should focus on making it easier for those who do want to raise families. For example:

• Affordable childcare
  
  
• Tax incentives
  
  
• Better parental leave policies
  
  
• Simpler, transparent adoption procedures

These practical measures help families balance work and home life, and let couples make decisions based on their own comfort, not societal pressure.

Leverage demographic strength

India is at a crucial moment. The drop in fertility rate shows that social change is happening, and fast.

But it doesn’t mean the sky is falling. With thoughtful policies and forward-thinking support systems, India can maintain a sustainable population and continue to benefit from its demographic strength.

Let’s not panic about fewer children. Let’s focus on making sure every child and family thrives.

RCB's IPL victory and tragedy -- lessons to be learnt

A horrific tragedy unfolded in Bengaluru today evening, during an event that should have been a celebration.

Historic victory for RCB

Yesterday, the city was buzzing with joy as the Royal Challengers Bengaluru won the Indian Premier League cricket championship, defeating Punjab Kings by six runs in the final in Ahmedabad. 

It was the first time that RCB won the cup since IPL was launched 18 years ago. Thrice the team was in the final but had lost. 

Such was the euphoria yesterday that within moments, an announcement was made that there would be a victory parade through the city today. The procession was set to start from Vidhana Soudha and end at M Chinnaswamy Stadium.

Victory parades are common

Parades by winners of sports events are nothing new. They happen around the world. But what happened in Bengaluru this evening was tragically unprecedented. 

The stadium, which can hold around 35,000 people, saw crowds of around 200,000 on the roads leading to it. It was like everyone wanted to be part of the celebrations and tried to make their way in.

In the chaos, 11 people lost their lives and scores were injured. Luckily, all the wounded are now out of danger.

Stampedes aren’t new 

People not only form crowds but they try to push and shove to move forward. There have been so many incidents of stampede in our country in which scores have lost their lives. 

Today evening, fans should have restrained themselves. It was common sense that there would be huge crowds for anything to do with cricket in India.

On seeing the surging masses, they should have exercised discretion and gone back home.

Lessons to be learnt

There are a number of lessons to be learned by everyone involved — the fans, the cricket board, and the government.

The RCB and the government should not have announced the victory celebration in such haste, with less than 24 hours’ notice. 

Even if the idea was RCB’s (their enthusiasm is understandable), the government and the police should not have given permission without putting proper crowd control measures in place.

Cricketers didn't deserve this heartbreak

The government, the police, and the RCB fans owe an apology to the cricketers who worked so hard to lift the cup, and also to the families of those who lost their lives, and the wounded. 

The crickerters' achievement has now been overshadowed by this preventable disaster.

Let’s hope at least now we will learn the importance of planning, restraint, and responsibility.

Day 9 - Thane - Canon museum or Cannon museum?

(This is the last part of the Maharashtra tour series. You’ll find the links to all the other parts at the end of this post.)

WEDNESDAY, MAY 14

We reached Thane, the last leg of the tour, from Sainagar (Shirdi) around 4 am, pretty much on time. 

We figured our way to the exit. As is the norm in most Indian railway stations, we were immediately approached by autorickshaw drivers offering us a ride to our destination.

At that hour, we didn't have many options. So, I told one of the drivers the hotel name and the location, and to be sure, showed him the Google Maps location as well. It was about 7 km away.

As I feared, the hotel gate was locked from the inside. So, I called the manager on my phone and got someone to open the gate.

After we checked in and freshened up, we took a nap and woke up quite hungry around 9 am.

Tea and biscuits

Assuming there would be restaurants nearby, I did not opt for a complimentary breakfast option while booking. Now, when I checked Google Maps, there weren’t any restaurants very close by. A couple of them that were not too far off would open only by 11 am.

We were left with asking the hotel reception staff to have tea and biscuits delivered to our room. That was all that was available!

Mysterious museum

Our Thane sojourn was just for a day. The only two engagements were meeting my teacher, Tekale Sir, who taught us General Knowledge and Sanskrit in school and also visiting the mysterious “Canon Museum”.

Sir’s family invited us for lunch, so we made use of the pre-lunch session to visit the museum, which had triggered a lot of curiosity in me while I was planning this entire Maharashtra trip a couple of months ago.

I have explained it all in the post Canon, Cannons, and AI

Here is a summary. While planning the trip, I was checking websites as well as AI platforms like ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, etc. Since I am interested in museums, I thought I would check if Thane had any museums. 

A “Canon Museum” showed up. AI-triggered information was that it's a museum of cameras made by the camera manufacturer Canon. 

There was also a link to the Google Maps location of that place. But when I checked on the Maps, it turned out that it was about cannons, as in artillery, and not cameras. There were photos put up by reviewers. Obviously, AI was misled by the wrong spelling. Even humans would have been.

So, I had decided that when I am in Thane, I will definitely visit this place to figure out what it was all about.

Finally at the museum

When we reached the place, about 5 km from the hotel, it didn’t look like the photos on Google Maps. There was a big gate that led to a vast paved ground. There were no signs of cannons nor Canon’s cameras.

We approached a watchman who was standing nearby and asked him about the museum. At first, he didn’t understand what we were referring to. 

No sooner had I opened Google Maps and showed him the photos the reviewers had posted than he said we were indeed at the right place. He led us in through the gate, and we walked to the left of the ground, where the so-called museum was located. 

We could see the artillery there. So it’s not about Canon cameras but cannons.

Place name change in Google Maps

I have made an edit to the name of the place in Google Maps, changing “Canon museum” to “Cannon museum”. But Google has yet to approve the change I suggested. It’s still under review. A small difference in spelling. But it makes a huge difference in meaning.

Not really a museum

It is a well-maintained place, full of different types of trees and plants. It is not exactly a museum. It is just a place where 12 historical cannons are mounted on two raised platforms. 

A caretaker of the place told us that the entire area was once under water and that these weapons were discovered during land reclamation. However, no other information was available regarding the artillery.

There is a children's playground on the premises with equipment like climbers, slides, and a horizontal bar. The caretaker mentioned that from 5 PM until late evening, the place is filled with children playing.

Additionally, there is a small Hanuman temple. A board outside states that the temple is over 100 years old.

The Hanuman temple

The entire area is by the side of a river, but the gate leading to it was closed.

It’s a place where one can spend time to relax and unwind. Since it was morning, we found just a few people there.

Back to school days

After spending around an hour there, we headed to my teacher’s house, where he stayed with his daughter and family. We were treated to a delicious Maharashtrian meal. We were meeting after about 30 years, at least. 

We spent the afternoon reminiscing about our school days. We also reconnected with a couple of common friends. After tea and snacks, we went back to the hotel.

THURSDAY, MAY 15

Around 6 am, we took an Uber from the hotel to Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus, or CSMT (what was once called Victoria Terminus or VT). It took about an hour and we were at the station by 6.45 am well in time for the Udyan Express which would would leave at 8 am and reach Bengaluru at 6 am the next day. 

Perfect start to retired life

It was a great trip, very fulfilling and enjoyable -- four places in10 days. I had fears of a heat wave ruining our outings. But mercifully, it wasn’t as hot as I expected. 

We also had worries if the border conflict would escalate further. During the trip, we learned that it was indeed a valid fear because several tourist destinations were planning to shut down if there was an escalation.

Thankfully, everything went off well. It was the perfect start to the new phase of my life, when I would be free from the hectic office-bound routine, giving myself the luxury of a slow-paced life.

(Concluded)

Maharashtra tour 2025 series

Day 1 - May 6 - Chugging along to Pune

Day 2 - May 7 - Pune - News, nuisance, and festivities

Day 3 - May 8 - Pune - A day of mixed emotions

Day 4 - May 9 - Pune - History, temple, and reminiscences

Day 5 - May 10 - Pune - Whirlwind tour and news flash

Day 6 - May 11 - Sambhaji Nagar - A special breakfast and a tryst with nature

Day 7 - May 12 - Sambhaji Nagar - Ellora Caves

Day 7 - May 12 - Sambhaji Nagar - Paithani saris, Bibi Ka Maqbara

Day 8 - May 13 - Shani Shingnapur and Shirdi

Day 9 - May 14 - Thane - Canon museum or Cannon museum?

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