It's difficult to imagine that the Kamala Harris team didn't see this coming. They were at no point clearly ahead in the run-up to the polls. If at all they were, it was just by a small margin in some regions.
The Trump team had the momentum right from the start. In fact, he was running for 2024 right from the time he was narrowly edged out by Joe Biden in 2020.
The Democrats bungled with the nomination. There was an initial excitement, but that gave way to real issues on the ground.
Inflation, real-estate prices, unemployment, etc., seem to have played a good part and even overridden an issue like abortion.
Kamala Harris made a faux pas when she replied, "There is nothing," when she was asked if she would do anything different from Joe Biden. She made amends subsequently, but the damage seemed to have been done.
It's not that Trump is always correct in replies to questions. But when someone who is trailing makes a mistake, the damage is greater than when someone who is leading makes a mistake.
IT'S NO LONGER A BACKLASH
The right wing began consolidating its position, and the far right began emerging into the mainstream about 10 to 15 years ago.
It was a backlash against a social, economic and political norm that many people began to feel was unjust. We have seen that in many countries, including India.
Conservatives began to be seen as a group of pro-active, result-oriented people, compared to the liberal and progressive groups who were seen preferring the status quo and merely complaining and not doing anything.
That might be a perception, but in politics, perceptions play a huge role.
Perception or not, it began to settle down in various strata of society, and internet-aided social networks played a huge part in this transformation.
Aspects like globalisation, multilateralism, cultural inclusivity, etc, were seen as a threat to national identity and national prosperity.
Brexit and the ascent of conservatives to power in many countries, including India, was a testament to how the social mosaic was changing.
A decade and a half down the line, it's no longer a backlash. It's a reaffirmation of a reality and, for many, even an aspiration.
This is a reality that has also thrown the liberal camps into confusion and disarray. So much so that many in those groups are switching sides. Otherwise, the sort of gains that conservatives are making won't be possible.
RIGHT AND WRONG
Many years ago, probably in the mid-2000s, I was talking to a professor of physics who is good with computer technology as well.
Those were the days we were revelling in the excitement of "connections" and "friends" we were making on social media. AI and deepfakes were just restricted to the realms of labs and academic discussions.
I still remember him saying that free access to the internet in general and social media in particular will bring huge changes in society at all levels. At one point, he said it might even "wreak havoc".
I won't get into whether there has been a havoc or not, but definitely, we have seen changes, quite drastic and dramatic.
I asked him, "Are we heading in the right direction?"
He said, "Right or wrong is debatable. What is right for one could be wrong for another. But a clearer way of looking at it is 'for anyone, what works is right and what doesn't work is wrong'."
He just left it at that and set me thinking.
That was about 20 years ago. A good point to ponder over today as well.
Hari Om
ReplyDeleteThank you for the anecdote at the end. Mind fodder for sure. I just think some should be wary of their wishes coming true. Meanwhile those who wished for something different have to grit our teeth... YAM xx
Hi Yamini - I know it's not comfortable turn of events. But a reality nevertheless.
DeleteAn interesting post, Pradeep. I think you're right in many respects. In principle, we should be voting for the people who run our countries most effectively on a human and economic level, but in the end, most vote for the personalities that make their case most effectively. In this sense, the result is not really surprising, which is a pity. Your closing anecdote really is a point on which to ponder. Thank you!
ReplyDeleteHi Vallypee - There has been a big change in the way people make their choices. It's there for all of us to see. Yes, it's quite an unfortunate we are all passing through.
DeleteA very nice analysis. The initial bungling with Biden's nomination and the subsequent revision of Hariss with the consequent loss of momentum, Hariss's agreement initially with the lacklustre Biden's policies that did not go well with the popular mood though corrected later and her emphasis on relatively minor issues like abortion rights instead of on burning issues like inflation, rising prices and growing unemployment could have played a part in the loss of support in swing states. As you have pointed out, the global trend is also moving towards conservatism, unlike the left-liberal as in the past.
ReplyDeleteOne major reason, not discussed widely, is that a woman nominee starts with a handicap. America has never elected a woman as President, white or non-white. This disdain on the part of male voters has a significant bearing on the outcome. Perhaps, both parties should think of simultaneously nominating women candidates in the future to get a woman President for a change.
Hi KP - The gender issue is a valid point. But I think it played a smaller role in the outcome compared to more important issues like policies.
DeleteThe democrats hid Biden’s health issue. They should have come out a year ago and asked Biden not to contest. Then there would have been a regular primary and someone would (other than Kamala) would have become the Democratic party candidate. I will bet it would have been either Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or California Governor Gavin Newsom. Both are capable of defeating Trump.
ReplyDeleteHi SG - Yes, the nomination process was perhaps the biggest mistake the Dems made.
DeleteIt's difficult to imagine that the entire Kamala camp, incl. Obamas, couldn't see what was obvious to so many..
ReplyDeleteHi Rajesh - I think they were all expecting a huge surprise which simply didn't happen.
DeleteHi Pradeep - an interesting post ... particularly your last point ... we're in it now - and must live with it ... I'd rather we had leaders who consider others ... but so be it - it will be 'interesting' to see how things pan out. Autocrats ... usually not good for the world - thanks for your thoughts - cheers Hilary
ReplyDeleteHi Hilary - Exclusivity and lack of consideration for others are not good attributes, especially for people who are leading a country that has a lot of influence on the entire world. As you rightly said let's wait to see how things pan out. Hopefully wiser counsels will prevail.
DeletePradeep, thank you for visiting little KatieIsabella's page. :-) I had hoped not to have to read politics in a pet-centric world...the Cat Blogosphere is what I am speaking of, but...I did have to read a lot of bloggers opinions. I however, never say anything about my Country's politics though I am constantly thinking hard about it...nor do I ever say anything about another Country's political ways. Not my business to comment on something I don't really know about by living it. NOW--- that being said. I thoroughly enjoyed YOUR blog today (as I always do). And your replies to comments. Not many do it better than you. It was a pleasure being here. Thanks for being you.
ReplyDeleteHi Katie - Thank you for dropping by and for your comments. I too am not very comfortable discussing politics, even with friends. Because I find politics doesn't have an enabling spirit, though ideally it should have especially in a democracy.
DeleteOn the contrary, politics is very divisive and polarising besides every emotional. But this is one of the rare political post I have done of late. India's politics is not very different from that of yours.
I hope our two countries and the world at large get a political administation that does good to the society and not create hatred and violence.