Emmanuel Macron is new President of France

(This was a live page)

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Marine Le Pen supporters are saying this is not a defeat. But another landmark in the march of their party. At the very start of Front National, it got around 0.4% votes. In 2002 they got around 17% and today it's around 35%. They say they will continue to move ahead.
Le Pen said the party will get a revamp. Already the present FN is far diluted version of the party her father founded in 1972. Is the original FN dead? Now how will the new FN look like?

0040
Emmanuel Macron makes a short and sober speech. Thanks voters. Assures the people that he would protect the country and keep it united.

Déclaration officielle. https://t.co/uLyRHujGm2

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) May 7, 2017

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France is at a turning point. Beginning of a new chapter in its political, economic and social life. We will await who Macron's Prime Minister will be. Macron will also need support in Parliament to rule; and remember all the major parties were rejected by the people in this election. The National Assembly election comes up in January, that will give a clearer picture what lies ahead for France in the four to five years from now.

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En Marche is the party that Macron belongs to. And that party is just one year old. Imagine such a party winning the Presidential election of a country like France, quite historic, a world record of sorts. Just shows the sort of polity that exists in France. I guess, many people would have voted for Macron to be on the safe side, in order to not make matters worse by voting for Le Pen.

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Nearly a third of voters cast blank ballots.. apparently the highest. .. That's the protest vote.

2345
Marine Le Pen concedes defeat

"Les Français ont choisi un nouveau Président de la République et ont voté pour la continuité." #Présidentielle2017

— Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) May 7, 2017

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🔴 #BREAKING - Emmanuel #Macron elected president of France (with 65.1% of the vote) pic.twitter.com/4Vod8NNBm4

— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) May 7, 2017

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According to the BBC Emmanuel Macron is the new President of France with 65.5% of votes

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Opinion polls have been putting Macron ahead of Le Pen... Let us see who the people have actually voted for. ... We will know in a few minutes.

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Polls will close in another five minutes; and in a few minutes we will get to know who the next President of France.

Don't be surprised if Le Pen wins on May 7

Marine Le Pen (Photo: CNBC)

Today, it's a week since the first round of French elections took place. Very much like what the opinion polls predicted, centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen came on top.

Today, it's one week to go for the second and final round. After many years, we have a very tightly contested race for the next occupant of Palais de l'Élysée (Elysee Palace), the official residence of the President of France.

It's widely speculated that Macron will defeat Le Pen. But as the poll date nears, there are increasing indications that it will not be a cake walk for him. An Odoxa survey, a few days ago showed that the gap between the two had narrowed, and Macron's share of vote could be 59%, down four points. Marine Le Pen stands at 41%, up four points from earlier in the week.

Another poll by Harris Interactive, said that Macron will win: 61% to 39%. But he has lost ground in the past week to Le Pen: six percentage points.

Why the going might be difficult for Macron

On May 23rd, Le Pen got just 5% votes in Paris, but in five adjoining regions -- Grand Est, Hauts-de-France, Normandie, Centre-Val de Loire and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté -- she was the winner.

Emmanuel Macron (Photo: New Statesman)

There is a lot of support for far right views among the youth. The flood of immigrants and the changes that is bringing about in the society isn't to everyone's liking. Extreme right is seeking exit of not just refugees but even people of non-European and sometimes even non-French origin. Le Pen's FN party is no longer extreme right-wing, but many who are right and beyond are likely to back Le Pen rather than Macron.

She has support from not just youth of 18 to 24 years, but also among the working class and lower middle class. And these are not demographic bands that get widely represented in urban media. A good example of this was when she engineered a publicity coup by meeting striking workers of the Whirlpool factory at the picket gate of their factory in Amiens, while Macron was holding talks with union officials in the comforts of the building. The factory is facing closure after a number of jobs were outsourced to Poland. She said she will not let the factory close.

There is massive unemployment. It's around 10%. While it is 4% in Germany, and 5% in the UK. And this has been agitating the youth. In Round 1 on April 23, she won in areas that had high unemployment and low wages.

Similarity to Trump

There is an unmistakable similarity to what played out in the US in the runup to the November poll in the US. Everyone predicted Hillary will win, but Trump kept gaining steadily in opinion polls, which the media largely didn't take seriously. Le Pen too is gaining steadily.

Trump appealed to a vast number of blue-collar workers. So is Le Pen. And that is a good number in France too.

Many people think Macron will be indecisive in these times when tough decisions would have to be taken. They think he would just be another of those business-class elite would just go with the not-too-well-working system.

And now we have reports that Russian hackers have broken into Macron's campaign, much like what we heard about the Democratic campaign in the US.

The quiet voters

What might prove crucial is how supporters of left and far-left would vote. Its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon who secured 19% votes last week, hasn't endorsed Macron. May 7 result will be affected if many his supporters decide to support Le Pen or even abstain, without voting for either.

Macron may have won Round 1, and all parties (except the Socialists) might be uniting behind him to prevent FN from coming to power. But does that imply that people too would unite similarly?

In other words, many voters who might theoretically be against Le Pen could support her. But since that's going to be "very politically incorrect" for them, they might not talk about it.

How ironic it would be, if most of Left abstains, and that catapults Marine Le Pen to Palais de l'Élysée.

References:

All the ways Emmanuel Macron could still lose the French election - Quartz, April 28, 2017

Le Pen GAINS ground as Macron support drops ahead of final vote -  Sunday Express,  Apr 28, 2017

Marine Le Pen closes the gap with Emmanuel Macron - Daily Mail, April 28, 2017

Macron heckled by pro-Le Pen workers - BBC, 26 April 2017

'Death of the French left': why voters are hesitating over Macron - The Guardian, 26 April 2017

Russian hackers 'target' presidential candidate Macron - BBC, 25 April 2017

Marine Le Pen wins just 5% of Paris vote while rural FN support surges - Independent, April 24, 2017

How the Election Split France - New York Times, April 23, 2017

'The real misery is in the countryside': support for Le Pen surges in rural France - The Guardian, April 21, 2017

Why does Le Pen get so much support from young voters? - Al Jazeera, April 20, 2017

Marine Le Pen’s surprise supporters - Politico, Jan 23, 2017

France unemployment rate - Countryeconomy.com

French presidential poll 1st round result updates

(This was a live blog post)


1.20 am

Signing off for now. Will look forward to the final numbers tomorrow morning.

1.10 am
Interior Ministry puts Marine Le Pen ahead with 24.38% and Emmanuel Macron with 22.19%, François Fillon 19.63% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.09, after counting of 20 million votes

12.55 an
Today's was a historical election, though we still don't have a new President of France until May 7. Historic because, the main parties that ruled France for almost 50 years have been eliminated.
The second and final round of election on May 7 will be a more bitterly fought one. The views of centrist Independent Macron and extreme right-wing Le Pen are vastly divergent. Immigration -- open border as opposed to closed border -- is going to be passionately debated. And the role of France in European Union and also the larger comity of nations will also come under the lens.

12.45 am
Marine Le Pen addresses supporters. Expresses gratitude to people for supporting her. Says survival of France is at stake.

12.40 am
Fillon has conceded defeat and urged his supporters to vote for Macron

12.30 am

Who is Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron
--  Born December 21, 1977
-- Senior civil servant and former investment banker at Rothschild & Cie Banque.
-- Member of the Socialist Party from 2006 to 2009.
-- In 2015, he stated that he was no longer a member of the PS and was now an Independent.
-- As Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Data in 2014, he was at the forefront of pushing through business-friendly reforms.

Source: Wikipedia

12.15 am

Who is Marion Anne Perrine (Marine Le Pen):
-- Born on August 5, 1968
-- President of the National Front
-- Youngest daughter of FN leader Jean-Marie Le Pen
-- She is said to be more republican than her father and have more acceptance among people.
-- She expelled her father from the party on August 20, 2015
-- She changed some traditional views of FN, with support for same sex unions, abortion, and pulling out death penalty.

-- She was ranked among the most influential people in 2011 and 2015 by the Time 100.

Source: Wikipedia

12.05 am

Emmanuel Macron with 23.7% is slightly ahead of Front National leader Le Pen who has 21.7%. Official figures awaited.

11.55 pm

"C'est une belle victoire pour tous les patriotes !" pic.twitter.com/JxQHZldOFp

— Marion Le Pen (@Marion_M_Le_Pen) April 23, 2017

11.45 pm

Historic results, since the mainstream parties have been sidelined. Macron and Le Pen have 23% of votes. Fillon and Mélenchon have 19%. Benoit Hamon of Socialist party gets just 5%

11.35 pm

Emmanuel Macron leads, Marine Le Pen takes second place in French presidential election, according to early results from FRANCE 24’s partner Ipsos.

11.28 pm

After the disaster of predicting the US election results, which Donald Trump won in November last year, no is taking the risk of loudly proclaiming the possible winner today. Once bitten twice shy! But the above mentioned four are widely expected to end up on top.

11.27 pm

To win the election, the leading candidate has to secure more than 50 per cent of the total votes. Since there are 11 candidates it's highly unlikely that the winner will go past the half way mark. In that case, the top two will clash again on May 7.

11.20 pm

There are 11 candidate. The four most prominent among them span the whole spectrum:

1) Marine Le Pen of far-right National Front

2) Emmanuel Macron of centrist En Marche!

3) François Fillon, centre-right The Republicans

4) Jean-Luc Mélenchon, of far-left La France insoumise

11.15 pm

Brexit. Trump's victory. And now French elections. This is perhaps the most unpredictable French elections in modern times. A lot of focus on rising support for the right-wing and extreme right-wing parties. In September we will see the same unpredictable scenario playing out in Germany too. Polls close in 15 minutes time. And exit poll results should be coming in soon after that.