Panama 2.0 or something new? Might vs right in US capture of Venezuela's Maduro

An American administration toppling a government it doesn’t like is nothing new. They have a long history of it, stretching back decades.

However, what happened on 3 January in Venezuela was unprecedented in one aspect: specifically in the dramatic manner in which the US executed "Operation Absolute Resolve".

When I mentioned to some friends that this was a first of its kind, a few argued it wasn’t. They pointed to the case of Manuel Noriega in Panama in the late 1980s as a precedent.

PANAMA WAS DIFFERENT

While there are similarities, they are actually quite limited. General Manuel Noriega wasn’t captured in the same way Nicolás Maduro was. 

Since many people have been talking about Panama, let me recall what happened. It was in December 1989.

Just like Maduro, Noriega was wanted by the US on drug-trafficking charges. Noriega had actually been a "friend" of the US initially, but the relationship snapped. One major reason being the murder of Hugo Spadafora, a prominent physician and guerrilla fighter, by Noriega’s government.

Just as Trump tried to negotiate a deal with Maduro, Ronald Reagan’s administration had tried to force Noriega to resign; but it failed. Noriega was widely believed to have lost the May 1989 elections. He annulled it. The US, under the presidency of George H.W. Bush, began amassing troops and invaded Panama on 20 December 1989.

And here is the difference: though the Panamanian forces were no match for the US, the fighting lasted for days. 

Noriega went into hiding, took refuge in Apostolic Nunciature, the de facto embassy of the Vatican, and successfully evaded capture for a while.

The US troops surrounded the diplomatic enclave, and launched psychological warfare that included blaring deafening rock music. Parallely, the US mounted pressure on the Vatican.  

On 3 January 1990 (that is, two full weeks after the invasion began) Noriega realised the game was up and surrendered. He was flown to the US, imprisoned, tried, convicted, and sentenced to 40 years.

THE LIGHTNING STRIKE

Unlike the Panamanian invasion, what happened in Venezuela was a "lightning strike" by the US Delta Force. US cyber-operators even plunged the capital, Caracas, into total darkness before troops swooped in on Maduro. 

They captured him and his wife (the precise word used by President Trump in his presser) and flew them out of the country to the USS Iwo Jima, and from there, straight to New York.

WILL THIS TRIGGER COPY-CAT RAIDS? 

Experts are now concerned that this new precedent set by Donald Trump could lead to similar copy-cat raids by powerful nations looking to decapitate the governments of weaker countries.

Some suggest China could attempt this with Taiwan. One of my friends even wondered: what if India did something similar in Bangladesh?

Theoretically, these are all possibilities. Weaker leaders will certainly feel vulnerable after watching the events in Venezuela. 

However, on a practical level, the realities on the ground are very different. In Venezuela’s case, while drug-trafficking was the public trigger, President Trump, during the press conference, spoke quite openly about the country's vast oil reserves being at the heart of the operation.

Furthermore, Venezuela and Taiwan are in no way comparable. Similarly, the dynamics of the India-Bangladesh relationship are very different from that of the US-Venezuela situation.

LIFE GOES ON

Barring the terrifying swiftness with which the US overran a sovereign nation, nothing much has changed in the grander scheme of things. 

This is not the first time international law has been violated. The US has done it many times before: in Iraq, Libya, and Grenada, just to cite a few. Each time, there are vociferous protests, not just in the US, but across the world, but eventually, the dust settles.

Russia, and earlier, the USSR, too have a similar track record in places like Crimea, Ukraine, Georgia, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, etc. Again, the world protests, but nothing really happens.

SO, INVASION IS OKAY?

Just because something has been happening for several decades doesn't make it right. What the superpowers are doing is certainly not okay. I am just portraying the reality of our world. 

Might might not be right, but the mighty usually get away with what they want.