Beyond Boeing and Airbus

For Boeing, the American aerospace giant, it has been a really turbulent journey. Over the last seven years, its planes have been involved in several fatal accidents. 

The most well-known are the two 737 MAX crashes (2018-19), the crash of a Boeing 737-800 in 2024, and now the Ahmedabad disaster, the first fatal crash involving a Dreamliner.

In contrast, Airbus, Boeing’s European rival, has not had any major fatal accidents involving new commercial jets during this same period. Most serious Airbus incidents occurred before 2015.

Besides, Boeing reported a loss of $11.8 billion last year, pushing its total losses since 2019 to more than $35 billion.

The Ahmedabad crash

As you may recall, the aircraft involved in the Ahmedabad crash was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner. Flight AI 171 had a normal takeoff from Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, at 1.38 pm on June 12, but within just 36 seconds, something went terribly wrong.

The pilot issued a mayday call to the Air Traffic Control. 

Photo credit: PTI

The aircraft, heading to London Gatwick and carrying 230 passengers and 12 crew members, began losing altitude and descended, but over a residential area. 

It crashlanded on a hostel for doctors and soon caught fire. The horrific images of towering flames and thick black smoke, which were playing on the television, are still vivid in my mind.

Only one passenger survived: Ramesh Viswash Kumar, a UK citizen and resident of Leicester. 

Charred bodies are being identified through DNA samples of the next of kin. As of today, only about 177 have been identified. The identification process, and the agonising wait for families, will take several more days.

Both the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder (the black boxes) have been recovered. Investigators hope they will reveal what actually happened and put to rest the many theories circulating since the day of the crash.

Airbus pulls ahead

Boeing was founded in 1916 by William E. Boeing. It began as Pacific Aero Products and was renamed Boeing Airplane Company a year later.

Airbus entered the picture much later, in 1970, as a European consortium. 

Despite this late start, Airbus has now overtaken Boeing in many key metrics. For example, last year, Airbus delivered 766 aircraft, while Boeing managed only 348.

Alternatives to Boeing and Airbus

There are a few, but none can match the scale and volume of these two, to meet the global demand.

So, at least for now, it's just Boeing and Airbus.

However, there are two -- a Chinese and a Brazilian -- steadily ramping up their production. Looks like, with time, the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus might face a real challenge.

COMAC: China’s contender

A company with the potential to disrupt the Boeing-Airbus duopoly is COMAC, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China.

Founded in 2008, COMAC is a state-owned enterprise based in Shanghai. 

Since becoming operational, C919 has carried
more than 1 million passengers. Photo credit: COMAC

Its flagship aircraft is the C919, a narrow-body, single-aisle jetliner that seats 158 to 192 passengers. It entered commercial service only in 2023 and currently serves major Chinese airlines.

COMAC is also working on a wide-body jet called the C929, which will seat 280 to 320 passengers and is designed for long-haul routes. However, it is still under development.

Additionally, COMAC has a short-to-medium range regional aircraft, the C909, with seating for 78 to 97 passengers.

Given China's rapid strides in science, technology, and global influence, COMAC seems well positioned to become a serious alternative to Boeing and Airbus.

Embraer: Brazil’s star

Another noteworthy player is Embraer, a Brazilian company that has delivered over 9,000 aircraft to customers in more than 100 countries. It is currently the world’s third-largest commercial aircraft manufacturer.

Founded in 1969 by the Brazilian military government, with former Air Force officer Ozires Silva playing a key role, Embraer is based in São José dos Campos.

Embraer is known for its E-Jet family, the E170, E175, E190, and E195, as well as its newer E2 series. These regional jets seat fewer than 150 passengers and are in operation around the world.

Photo credit: The Hindu

In India, Embraer has a strong presence, with around 50 aircraft operating in various sectors. Bengaluru-based Star Air, for instance, operates nine Embraer jets across 22 Indian destinations from its hubs in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Belagavi.

While Embraer has no plans to build wide-body aircraft, it is exploring the possibility of developing a larger narrow-body jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families.

Given its presence in various countries, Embraer might not find it too difficult to diversify and offer customers a good alternative.

Duopoly might not last

While Boeing and Airbus are still the only companies that can meet large-scale global demand, the future may see more competition, especially as global air travel continues to grow, and with an increased focus on diversification and regional connectivity.

COMAC, with its ambitious plans and government backing, could eventually challenge the duopoly, while Embraer, eyeing expansion, remains a strong player in the regional jet segment.

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You may like to read: The Maharaja is back home (October 12, 2021) on Tatas getting back the ownership of Air India after the Union government privatised the airline.

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India’s falling fertility rate: Should we be worried or relieved?

If you asked someone, “What’s the biggest challenge India is facing today?” chances are high that you’d hear: overpopulation.

From traffic jams and garbage dumps to unemployment and corruption, so many of our problems seem to link back to too many people.

Since 2023, India has held the title of the world’s most populous country, with an estimated 1.46 billion people, overtaking China which has around 1.41 billion. 

But now, something significant has happened, quietly but surely: India’s fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level for the first time in history.

What low fertility rate means

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime. 

The replacement level, which is 2.1, is the average number of children that is needed for a population to replace itself without migration. 

India’s TFR is now 1.9.

In the 1950s, our TFR was around 6.2. That’s a huge shift.

South Indian states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have led the decline, while northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar still have higher fertility rates.

Why fertility rate has dropped

There are several reasons:

* Cost of living has been going up, but income has been rising much slowly

* There is better access to education and careers for both women and men

* Attitudes towards marriage and parenting have been changing

* More people are choosing to marry later, or not at all

Today’s millennials and Gen Z simply don’t feel the same pressure to start large families. Some don’t want children at all, while many prefer to raise just one.

Low fertility rate: good or bad?

Well, it has some benefits:

• Fewer people means less demand for resources, infrastructure, and public services
  
  
• Families and governments can invest more in each child’s health and education
  
  
• Quality of life gets better

But there’s a flip side too:

• Number of older people will steadily become more than younger ones. By 2050, over 20% of Indians will be senior citizens, that is double the current figure
   
• Fewer working-age people may impact productivity and economic growth
  
  
• More elderly people could also mean higher spending on healthcare, pensions, and social support
  
  
• Loneliness, already a big problem, may get just worse

Have more kids?

India’s historic family planning campaign, launched in 1952, carried slogans like Hum do, hamaare do (We two, our two) to encourage smaller families. It seems to have worked. In fact, the slogan gradually became Hum do, hamaare ek (We two, our one). 

Over the past year, there have been suggestions from some leaders that the trend has to be reversed.

In December last year, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat said families should have at least three children, warning that a fertility rate below 2.1 could spell the extinction of communities.

Over the past few months, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has been echoing similar thoughts. “I used to advocate family planning. Now I’m promoting population growth. India’s biggest strength is its demographic dividend. If we manage it well, our future is bright.”

He’s even hinted at financial incentives for larger families.

While such voices are still few, they’re becoming louder, and some of their warnings feel a bit alarmist.

Do we need to panic?

Not really.

Even though TFR is now below 2.1, India’s population is expected to keep growing until around 2065, reaching a peak of 1.7 billion. A decline will begin only after that, and any major negative effects will take even longer to appear.

So, while this shift is historic and important, there’s no need to rush into drastic policy changes.

What should we do?

Instead of pushing people to have more children, we should focus on making it easier for those who do want to raise families. For example:

• Affordable childcare
  
  
• Tax incentives
  
  
• Better parental leave policies
  
  
• Simpler, transparent adoption procedures

These practical measures help families balance work and home life, and let couples make decisions based on their own comfort, not societal pressure.

Leverage demographic strength

India is at a crucial moment. The drop in fertility rate shows that social change is happening, and fast.

But it doesn’t mean the sky is falling. With thoughtful policies and forward-thinking support systems, India can maintain a sustainable population and continue to benefit from its demographic strength.

Let’s not panic about fewer children. Let’s focus on making sure every child and family thrives.

RCB's IPL victory and tragedy -- lessons to be learnt

A horrific tragedy unfolded in Bengaluru today evening, during an event that should have been a celebration.

Historic victory for RCB

Yesterday, the city was buzzing with joy as the Royal Challengers Bengaluru won the Indian Premier League cricket championship, defeating Punjab Kings by six runs in the final in Ahmedabad. 

It was the first time that RCB won the cup since IPL was launched 18 years ago. Thrice the team was in the final but had lost. 

Such was the euphoria yesterday that within moments, an announcement was made that there would be a victory parade through the city today. The procession was set to start from Vidhana Soudha and end at M Chinnaswamy Stadium.

Victory parades are common

Parades by winners of sports events are nothing new. They happen around the world. But what happened in Bengaluru this evening was tragically unprecedented. 

The stadium, which can hold around 35,000 people, saw crowds of around 200,000 on the roads leading to it. It was like everyone wanted to be part of the celebrations and tried to make their way in.

In the chaos, 11 people lost their lives and scores were injured. Luckily, all the wounded are now out of danger.

Stampedes aren’t new 

People not only form crowds but they try to push and shove to move forward. There have been so many incidents of stampede in our country in which scores have lost their lives. 

Today evening, fans should have restrained themselves. It was common sense that there would be huge crowds for anything to do with cricket in India.

On seeing the surging masses, they should have exercised discretion and gone back home.

Lessons to be learnt

There are a number of lessons to be learned by everyone involved — the fans, the cricket board, and the government.

The RCB and the government should not have announced the victory celebration in such haste, with less than 24 hours’ notice. 

Even if the idea was RCB’s (their enthusiasm is understandable), the government and the police should not have given permission without putting proper crowd control measures in place.

Cricketers didn't deserve this heartbreak

The government, the police, and the RCB fans owe an apology to the cricketers who worked so hard to lift the cup, and also to the families of those who lost their lives, and the wounded. 

The crickerters' achievement has now been overshadowed by this preventable disaster.

Let’s hope at least now we will learn the importance of planning, restraint, and responsibility.