For Boeing, the American aerospace giant, it has been a really turbulent journey. Over the last seven years, its planes have been involved in several fatal accidents.
The most well-known are the two 737 MAX crashes (2018-19), the crash of a Boeing 737-800 in 2024, and now the Ahmedabad disaster, the first fatal crash involving a Dreamliner.
In contrast, Airbus, Boeing’s European rival, has not had any major fatal accidents involving new commercial jets during this same period. Most serious Airbus incidents occurred before 2015.
Besides, Boeing reported a loss of $11.8 billion last year, pushing its total losses since 2019 to more than $35 billion.
The Ahmedabad crash
As you may recall, the aircraft involved in the Ahmedabad crash was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner. Flight AI 171 had a normal takeoff from Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, at 1.38 pm on June 12, but within just 36 seconds, something went terribly wrong.
The pilot issued a mayday call to the Air Traffic Control.
Photo credit: PTI |
The aircraft, heading to London Gatwick and carrying 230 passengers and 12 crew members, began losing altitude and descended, but over a residential area.
It crashlanded on a hostel for doctors and soon caught fire. The horrific images of towering flames and thick black smoke, which were playing on the television, are still vivid in my mind.
Only one passenger survived: Ramesh Viswash Kumar, a UK citizen and resident of Leicester.
Charred bodies are being identified through DNA samples of the next of kin. As of today, only about 177 have been identified. The identification process, and the agonising wait for families, will take several more days.
Both the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder (the black boxes) have been recovered. Investigators hope they will reveal what actually happened and put to rest the many theories circulating since the day of the crash.
Airbus pulls ahead
Boeing was founded in 1916 by William E. Boeing. It began as Pacific Aero Products and was renamed Boeing Airplane Company a year later.
Airbus entered the picture much later, in 1970, as a European consortium.
Despite this late start, Airbus has now overtaken Boeing in many key metrics. For example, last year, Airbus delivered 766 aircraft, while Boeing managed only 348.
Alternatives to Boeing and Airbus
There are a few, but none can match the scale and volume of these two, to meet the global demand.
So, at least for now, it's just Boeing and Airbus.
However, there are two -- a Chinese and a Brazilian -- steadily ramping up their production. Looks like, with time, the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus might face a real challenge.
COMAC: China’s contender
A company with the potential to disrupt the Boeing-Airbus duopoly is COMAC, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China.
Founded in 2008, COMAC is a state-owned enterprise based in Shanghai.
Since becoming operational, C919 has carried more than 1 million passengers. Photo credit: COMAC |
Its flagship aircraft is the C919, a narrow-body, single-aisle jetliner that seats 158 to 192 passengers. It entered commercial service only in 2023 and currently serves major Chinese airlines.
COMAC is also working on a wide-body jet called the C929, which will seat 280 to 320 passengers and is designed for long-haul routes. However, it is still under development.
Additionally, COMAC has a short-to-medium range regional aircraft, the C909, with seating for 78 to 97 passengers.
Given China's rapid strides in science, technology, and global influence, COMAC seems well positioned to become a serious alternative to Boeing and Airbus.
Embraer: Brazil’s star
Another noteworthy player is Embraer, a Brazilian company that has delivered over 9,000 aircraft to customers in more than 100 countries. It is currently the world’s third-largest commercial aircraft manufacturer.
Founded in 1969 by the Brazilian military government, with former Air Force officer Ozires Silva playing a key role, Embraer is based in São José dos Campos.
Embraer is known for its E-Jet family, the E170, E175, E190, and E195, as well as its newer E2 series. These regional jets seat fewer than 150 passengers and are in operation around the world.
Photo credit: The Hindu |
In India, Embraer has a strong presence, with around 50 aircraft operating in various sectors. Bengaluru-based Star Air, for instance, operates nine Embraer jets across 22 Indian destinations from its hubs in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Belagavi.
While Embraer has no plans to build wide-body aircraft, it is exploring the possibility of developing a larger narrow-body jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families.
Given its presence in various countries, Embraer might not find it too difficult to diversify and offer customers a good alternative.
Duopoly might not last
While Boeing and Airbus are still the only companies that can meet large-scale global demand, the future may see more competition, especially as global air travel continues to grow, and with an increased focus on diversification and regional connectivity.
COMAC, with its ambitious plans and government backing, could eventually challenge the duopoly, while Embraer, eyeing expansion, remains a strong player in the regional jet segment.
_____________________
You may like to read: The Maharaja is back home (October 12, 2021) on Tatas getting back the ownership of Air India after the Union government privatised the airline.
_____________________
An informative post. It is heartening to know that two more countries are manufacturing aircrafts to give competition to the existing two players. You have not mentioned about how accident free so far are the Chinese and Brazilian planes.
ReplyDeleteThe safety factor wiuld be the most crucial criterion in the selection of passenger planes.
Hi KP - I made a quick web search. What I found was that COMAC planes have not been involved in any major accident in the recent past.
DeleteHowever, a plane of Embraer was involved in a crash that killed 38 people in December last year. The aircraft was initially en route from Baku to Grozny but diverted due to poor weather. During the flight, it suffered catastrophic damage attributed to impact from "external objects", leading to loss of control and fatal crash.
Hari OM
ReplyDeleteThe smaller Embraer jets are used by Scotland's Loganair and I find them very comfy. Whether the company can upscale for longer haul would be interesting. Any form of travel 'plant' is fraught with risk, of course, but nothing is quite so dramatic and newsworthy as a plane crash. In India alone, the daily death rate is around 470 (recorded), or over 170k per annum. Do we read about them? YAM xx
...on the roads, that was meant to read (sorry for word drop out!) Yxx
DeleteHi Yamini - Though manufacture of commercial planes - especially long-haul ones - is quite capital intensive, I found it quite odd that in the whole world, there are just two companies that airlines have to choose from!
DeleteRegarding road accidents in India, you are absolutely right.
Many reasons: motorists are careless, they speed, there is rampant disregard of rules, there are too many vehicles on the roads, etc.
Besides, the response time when an accident happens is not quick.
A few startups tried to make things easier and safer for motorists. I myself wrote about a few. But none of them really took off.
I enjoyed this article you have provided. I would not have know these facts unless I had been here to read them. I have a strong interest in India, and its inhabitants and I am friend to some who are in the US.
ReplyDeleteHi Katie - I am very glad to know that you like my articles here. :-)
DeleteSo very sad. Boeing has undergone a transformation in their business practices in the last few years (since a merger with another company) to their detriment. I have no idea if this video will play for you but: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8oCilY4szc
ReplyDeleteYes, it's truly sad. Generations have grown up seeing the word Boeing on planes! Many iconic companies have gone down the hill and just vanished. It would be really sad if such a thing happens to Boeing. The YouTube video does play here. Thanks for sharing it. I watched it. It's shocking that in spite of whistleblowers and regulatory mechanisms, an unfit plane was allowed to fly. We don't know what really happened with the plane that crashed in Ahmedabad. The reports should be out in some time. Anyway, the India government is now on an overdrive to figure out airline safety issues, and plug loopholes in the regulatory processes.
DeleteWhat I know about Boeing is they make planes, so I found this really interesting
ReplyDeleteThank you!
DeleteI still can't believe that guy, didn't just survive, he literally walked away from it. he has to be the luckiest man on the planet.
ReplyDeleteBoeing’s image has been greatly tarnished in recent years, but they have only themselves to blame. Their responses to crises has not been exemplary and their aircraft continue to be plagued by one mishap or another.
ReplyDeletePublic confidence has been severely eroded.
I hate hearing about plane crashes but I figure with the idiots driving the roads, I am prob pretty safe in the air
ReplyDeleteI would feel safe with Boeing and Airbus.
ReplyDeleteAll aircraft are definitely safe. Just in case something happens, that's an accident, an exception, when something really unforeseen happens. Even in this case, AI has said that both the engines underwent routine, mandatory checks just a few months ago. Let us see what the black boxes reveal.
DeleteI was unaware of the existence of manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing until I travelled in an Embraer aircraft between Doha and Amman, Jordan in December 2008. My return journey too was in Embraer of the Royal Jordanian Airlines. Again I had another opportunity to travel in an Embraer aircraft belonging to LOT, the Polish national airline, between Warsaw and Zagreb, Croatia in October 2023.
ReplyDeleteVery informative post, Pradeep
ReplyDeleteVery informative Sir, wasn't aware of COMAC at all. Loved reading your replies to comments as well ..
ReplyDeleteNice. There is also the defence aircraft angle -- Tata Advanced Systems have taken a giant stride forward by starting manufacture of the Airbus C295 in India... Precursor to a huge defence market in aviation. We missed the commercial aircraft bus but hopefully the defence sector will see India as a dominant force.
ReplyDeleteThis is a very informative piece. Does COMAC have any international buyers, like the Brazilian one already seems to.
ReplyDeleteIndonesia's TransNusa and Laos' Lao Airlines operate COMAC's C909, which is a small commercial passenger plane which can seat around 70 passengers. VietJet has signed a contract, and the deliveries are expected this year.
DeleteTwo years ago, GallopAir of Brunei placed orders for C919, the mid-range aircraft and real competitor to Boeing and Airbus, for international travel. But the flight operations haven't begun.
Another problem for these C919 aircraft is that it lacks certification from major Western aviation authorities (EASA, FAA. Apparently, it will take around 5 to 6 years for them to give approval.
Interesting article with great detail. I follow air crash investigations with great interest as it has always led to several positive changes to the design and operation of an aircraft. Until the investigations are complete it would be inappropriate to speculate anything or blame anyone.
DeleteHowever, competition to the 2 major players is a healthy sign, considering the consequences of monopolies.
Hi Ajeya, hopefully, the reasons for the crash will be found out and corrective steps taken.
DeleteWhat a tragedy it was. Still unable to digest it.
ReplyDeleteYes!
DeleteVery informative, thank you. Competition in business is always healthy.
ReplyDeleteAir crashes are rare but so horrifying, because of the numbers of casualties.
Flying is, statistically, considered a very safe mode of transport. But when unfortunately, something goes wrong, it is quite heartrending.
DeleteFlying is getting scary.
ReplyDeleteIn spite of good and advanced technology, there are still so many unknowns!
DeleteBoing I'm not going. Well when I fly down to see my son in Oregon. I usually fly on a Boing to Seattle and usually get on a Embraer which I figure is better than Boing at this time.
ReplyDeleteOne of my friends also said that Embraer is a really good aircraft.
DeleteGood post informative. Plane crashes are dreadful but that last one, just ever so sad. May all those that died, may they R.I.P.
ReplyDeleteTrue, such a heartrending tragedy.
DeleteIt is surprising that airlines pay so little attention to matters of security. Let's hope the entry of more manufacturing companies will improve the situation.
ReplyDeleteHi Tomi - I found it quite surprising that there are just two manufacturers of big aircraft. Surely there is a need for competition.
DeleteInformative post
ReplyDeleteHi Subashini - Thank you.
Delete