From Trump's setback to Serbia's Parliament of PhDs

Lots of things have been happening on the political front in India, the US and many other countries.

DONALD TRUMPED

The midterm elections in the US generally don't get much attention in other parts of the world. But this time was an exception. The elections were being viewed almost like a presidential election. 

Donald Trump wanted it that way, as he pleaded with people to imagine that he was on the ballot. But the voters didn't give Trump what he desperately wanted.

It is nothing new for the party to which the President belongs to lose the midterms. Two years after Barack Obama was swept to power in 2008, in the 2010 midterms, Democrats lost majority in the House of Representatives. 

But here again, this time was an exception. The news was not so much the Republicans' defeat as the wide margin by which they lost to the Democrats. The news was bigger because of the way Trump ran the presidency.

I was quite surprised that Trump did not immediately claim that the polls were massively rigged. Instead, he acknowledged the electoral setback, while blaming the Democrats and other factors. 

I was also surprised to see him attribute the defeat, at least partly, to the war in Iran. That was very un-Trump-like.

TRUMP WANTS GYANESH!

The midterms triggered a meme-fest in India, mostly featuring India's Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. 

One of the memes doing the rounds showed Trump entering Narendra Modi's room and telling the Indian Prime Minister, "Bro, give us Gyanesh". Another said, "Gyanesh Kumar would've never let this happen to Trump."

For readers who aren't familiar with who Gyanesh is, here is a little background.

India's Chief Election Commissioner is currently the focus of an intense Opposition offensive for what they say, "grossly mismanaging" the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

SIR is not new. Basically, it's about cleaning up or updating the electoral rolls.

But this time around, the exercise was carried out in a very complicated manner, making it extremely difficult for many genuine Indian citizens to establish their eligibility as voters.

I went through the process myself, and I can say that the whole exercise was needlessly complicated. People had to produce several documents, some dating back many decades, to establish their connection with earlier electoral rolls. In many cases, they had to establish a link with the names of their parents or grandparents in the 2002 electoral rolls.

The exercise has resulted in a massive reduction in the number of names on electoral rolls. Opposition leaders say around 13 crore (130 million) names have been removed across the country. But the Election Commission's figures show a reduction of 7.04 crore names across 24 States and Union Territories where the final rolls had been published by October 28. These figures relate to different stages and coverage of the exercise.

In Bengaluru, the south Indian city where I reside, the number of voters in the updated roll has dropped from 1.03 crore (10.3 million) to 59.6 lakh (5.96 million).

One point to note here: Not all those whose names were removed were necessarily eligible voters. However, the Opposition alleges that a large number of genuine voters have also been disenfranchised, some selectively, belonging to a certain religion.

Gyanesh Kumar is accused, first, of unilaterally changing the rules governing the SIR in a manner that selectively disenfranchised voters and, second, of working in a way that facilitated the victory of the ruling BJP. None of these allegations has been established. Legal challenges to the exercise are also before the courts.

This is the context of the meme, which effectively showed Trump asking Modi to allow Gyanesh to conduct elections in the US!

To be fair, after media expose of "mismanagement" in the Election Commission and subsequent Opposition offensive, a number of contentious processes in the SIR have been changed or simplified. The commission is now proactively trying to enrol genuine voters whose names have been missed out.

NETANYAHU AND THE IRAN WAR

In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu has joined the list of world leaders who have failed to turn wars they launched into emphatic electoral victories in subsequent elections.

The Iran war, which Israel launched jointly with the US on February 28, has, it turns out, wreaked electoral havoc in both Israel and the US.

In the October 27 parliamentary elections, Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition secured only 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority. The opposition bloc secured 48 seats, while Arab-led parties won the remaining 19.

With neither bloc securing a majority, the political situation remains uncertain. President Isaac Herzog will consult political parties before deciding whom to invite to form the next government. There is speculation that Netanyahu may not be able to return to power.

A HISTORIC ELECTION IN BRAZIL

What happened in Brazil on October 25 was also quite dramatic. The incumbent left-leaning President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was re-elected in the second round of voting.

It was historic because, for the first time in Brazil's presidential election history, the winner of the first round, conservative Flávio Bolsonaro, lost in the runoff.

Flávio had secured 47.03% of the votes in the first round, against Lula's 45.16%. But Lula turned the tables in the runoff, winning 51.79% of the votes against Bolsonaro's 48.21%.

STUDENTS' MOVEMENT TRIUMPHS IN SERBIA

Celebration after Aleksandar Vucic's
right-wing Serbian Progressive Party lost. - AP photo.

Yet another, perhaps the most interesting and path-breaking election in October was held on the 25th in Serbia. It saw the culmination of a two-year student movement's street protests in an electoral victory. The movement, called "Student List – Students Are Winning", defeated the ruling Serbian Progressive Party led by strongman Aleksandar Vučić, which had been part of the ruling coalition since 2012.

The most interesting part is that none of the candidates fielded by the student-led movement were students themselves. Instead, they fielded professionals from various walks of life. 

Of the 250 candidates on the list, more than 160 reportedly held doctorates. The list included prominent researchers, academics, doctors, economists, organic chemists, sociologists, political scientists, lawyers, journalists, teachers and farmers.

The student-led list won 140 seats in the 250-member National Assembly, while Vučić's party secured 103. The remaining seats went to minority parties. 

Since the student-led movement won 140 seats, at least 50 of the newly elected lawmakers must be PhD holders. The actual number could be considerably higher.

The Serbian National Assembly could well turn out to be one of the most academically accomplished parliaments in the world. While the main focus of the student-led group's campaign was to rid society of corruption, the group also wanted to usher in meritocracy and academic autonomy.

The results were formally declared on November 5. The new Parliament is expected to meet within 30 days, after which the government will be formed.  It will be really interesting to track the progress of the new government in Serbia.