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| Screengrab from an 11-second video -- titled 'Dismantlement of a headquarters of the Iranian terror regime" -- released by the IDF yesterday showing plumes of smoke after the bombing by US-Israeli forces. The Iranian Supreme Leader and many other top civilian andmilitary leaders are suspected to have been killed in this attack. Source: X/IDF |
So, finally, what the US and Israel have wanted to achieve for close to 40 years has been accomplished.
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Saturday (28 Feb) morning occurred while US-Iran negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear programme were very much underway.
Just hours before the US and Israel launched the attack, the Omani Foreign Minister, Badr bin Hamad Albusaidi, -- one of the key mediators in the US-Iran talks -- had given broad indications in an interview with Margaret Brennan on CBS’s Face the Nation that Iran was coming around to accepting the demands of the US.
‘PEACE DEAL WITHIN REACH’
Watch the full interview here.
"In my assessment of the way the talks are going... I can see that the peace deal is within our reach." [00:41]
"If the ultimate objective is to ensure forever that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, I think we have cracked that problem through these negotiations by agreeing a very important breakthrough that has never been achieved any time before." [01:36]
"The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never, ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb. This is, I think, a big achievement." [02:14]
"We are talking about zero stockpiling. And that is very, very important, because if you cannot stockpile material that is enriched then there is no way you can actually create a bomb, whether you enrich or don't enrich." [03:00]
"If there is a deal, an agreed deal, there will be full access (for UN inspectors)." [05:15]
"I'm not really in a position to go into the details of this, but the big picture is that a deal is in our hand, if we are only allowed the negotiators, and I believe both sides have been dead serious, very creative, very imaginative, to really reach where we have reached so far." [07:37]
"If we can agree tomorrow on this deal, and it can be agreed very fast, then there will be the access given to all the experts to go and assess what we have there. We will have the access diplomatically without having to go to war." [11:05]
"The big main issues, components, that really are the main areas of concern, I think that can be agreed tomorrow. The technicalities will take some time to work it out with the agency, the IAEA." [16:54]
Read the full text of the interview here.
MANY UNANSWERED QUESTIONS
If a “peace deal” was so close to being achieved, as the Omani Foreign Minister indicated, then I wonder: why did the US and Israel launch the attack?
Is it because America feared that if the deal was finalised, Ali Khamenei would stay in power and the US and Israel would have to continue dealing with him? Perhaps the stated goal of regime change would not have been successful otherwise.
So, was it a deal that US the never really wanted?
Or was the whole deal really not about the nuclear issue at all?
Or was the "peace deal within reach" only in the minds of the mediators and not really something that the US or Iran really believed in.
Only on Friday (a day before the launch of the war), Trump said he wasn't happy with the way the talks were going. And in Iran, a fews ago, the Supreme Leader had charted out a chain of command in case the worst happened.
So, it looks like the writing was very much on the wall.
It was also surprising that the first wave of attacks happened on Saturday morning. Such strikes rarely occur in broad daylight. Was the timing intended to take the Iranian leadership by surprise?
WHAT IF THE WAR PROLONGS?
With the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the general hope is that the war will end soon.
However, there is no sign of that happening yet. More than 24 hours after the death of the Supreme Leader, Iran is continuing to launch missiles at targets across the Middle East.
Dubai was a particularly surprising target, especially its civilian airport — the busiest in the world — along with a hotel and a mall. The airport has been closed since yesterday, and its impact is already being felt globally.
If Iran’s military capabilities have been dented considerably, how are they managing to hold out? Incidentally, both Russia and China have condemned the US attack and the killing of Ali Khamenei.
If Iran manages to overtly or covertly reinforce its arsenal and the war prolongs, the impact on global supply chains and their cascading effects will be unimaginably severe.
Oil is once again centrestage. Nearly a quarter of the global oil supply passes through the narrow, 50-km wide Strait of Hormuz, which is under Iran’s control.
WHEN WILL IT ALL END?
The war will surely end one day. But I don’t see an immediate end to the hatred and animosity that both sides have harboured for decades, the very feelings at the root of everything we are seeing now in the Middle East. If anything, those flames have likely been fanned exponentially.
My heart hurts for all embroiled in war.
ReplyDeleteHi Darla - Yes, untold suffering of people who have nothing to do with a nation's policy!
DeleteThis is Trump doing it because he can, and because it makes him feel like a man. He will never have to deal with the long term consequences of this folly.
ReplyDeleteLeaders are rarely affected. Sadly it's common people who have nothing to do with a nation's policy who end up suffering.
DeleteTrump is insecure and afraid, he’s got an ego the size of Texas, and he’s extremely jealous of Obama and wants to obliterate Obama’s legacy.
ReplyDeleteVery sad that the world's most powerful person has an inferiority complex and feels so insecure.
DeleteIt might be a good time to tune into Al Jazeera for a less western view of the attack.
ReplyDeleteHi Andrew - Oh, yes! I am watching multiple channels - from Malayalam TV channels to English national channels to global ones like BBC, DW, France24, Al Jazeera and WION. (Malayalam is the local language of the southern state of Kerala, which has a very huge diaspora in the Middle East.)
DeleteI agree with David and songbird. You cannot convince me that this was done for any reasonable reasons.
ReplyDeleteI was watching the Defence Secretary's press conference a couple of hours ago. The rationale put forward for the operation wasn't convincing at all. Worse, he said the US didn't start the war! I wish some reporter had asked Hegseth why the US launched the strikes while the talks were ongoing; and to whom the Iranian military will lay down their arms as demanded by the US president because no one knows who is in charge in Iran!
DeleteI really do not like what geopolitics has come to
ReplyDeleteQuite messy, actually.
DeleteIf one man's death could bring peace to a whole region, that death would be justified. But that's not going to happen. I wrote a rather insane, illogical, delusional post on this. You're welcome to War and Music: https://matheikal.blogspot.com/2026/03/war-and-music.html
ReplyDeleteHi Tomi - Wars like this haven't really solved any problem. I'll read your post.
DeleteHari OM
ReplyDeleteI despair... Sure, the ayotollah was not a good human being in the general acceptance of such, but murder is murder and this is now murder on a mass scale, a match to a tinderbox. I sit in my little Hutch so safe and sound (for now) and weep for the world... YAM xx
Hi Yamini - True. He was brutal and repressive, no doubt. But it's difficult to believe that killing him will solve all the problems!
DeleteI am sorry that innocent people are suffering. But for the past 47 years Iran’s leaders have been saying “death to Israel” and “death to America,” and have said that Israel should be destroyed and wiped off the map. In this situation, many people in USA expect America to respond and protect its interests and its allies.
ReplyDeleteActually, installation and toppling of governments in Iran have been going on for more than nearly 70 years, with fluctuating periods of stability and instability.
DeleteNo doubt, Khamenei was brutal and extremely repressive. He had said some really horrendous things about the US president. One can understand the extent of mutual hatred both Iran and the US have for each other.
But the reasons the US is putting forward for launching this attack now, is not really convincing.
And secondly, whether the world will be safer without Khamenei (as the Defence Secretary said in the press conference a few hours earlier) is really doubtful.
This is a typical example of 'winning the battle but losing the war'. At the end of it all, I don't think anything much will change on the ground.
Good Day to you, Sir. :-) I have read the blog and all of the comments. Your manner is formed from strong observation and a gathering of varying news sources. That is why, I think, you have a professional vibe about your comment and blog.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Katie :-)
DeleteI worry that this war isn't going to change enough if anything people die and often things either don't change or just gets worse.
ReplyDeleteYes, Ann. It doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
DeleteI did not know that an agreement was even a possibility. What you’ve written here, Pradeep, makes the US/ Israeli attacks even more inexplicable. Why they believe killing Khamenei will solve the problems, I do not know. He was the figureheads, yes, but there's is still an entire government that thinks along the same lines. I am very concerned about what a prolonged conflict will mean. The ripple effect of an oil cut off will be very difficult to cope with.
ReplyDeleteIf getting rid of people solved the world's problems, our world would have been so much better off now. I share your worries and anxieties, Val. Oil prices are going to go over the roof, and there will be a severe shortage of many items of daily use as supply chains get hit.
DeleteI've encountered some deeply disturbing viewpoints or information about this. Rumors the real issue is that the Christian religious leaders demanded this war. (Obviously not the Pope, who has spoken against it, but other Christian branches. The ones where Jesus was some prejudice jerk who preached hatred and distrust. 🤷) Other rumors that Trump was bribed into this. And others that he did it as a way to prevent the midterm elections in November because he fears he'll be removed from power and thrown in prison for a list of crimes so long even a young person could never serve the sentences.
ReplyDeleteWe'll probably never know the truth.
I'm dropping by to wave hello. 🙋♂️
"Old wood best to burn, old wine to drink, old friends to trust, and old authors to read." — Athenaeus
J (he/him 👨🏽 or 🧑🏽 they/them) @JLenniDorner ~ Speculative Fiction & Reference Author and Co-host of the April Blogging #AtoZChallenge international blog hop
Hi Pradeep - it's so unfair ... especially from someone who is causing at least half of the world to feel a more difficult life ahead. It's appalling - well done for writing about it ... cheers Hilary
ReplyDeleteThank you. I agree with you. The war is unnecessary because it'sn't going to solve the problems.
Delete