Tuesday, March 17, 2026

When 'quick' wars go wrong

A neighbourhood in Tehran that was hit by airstrikes
on March 15. -- Image courtesy: The New York Times

A few restaurants that had shut down in my neighbourhood have now reopened. They had downed their shutters a few days ago after the government abruptly stopped the supply of commercial LPG cylinders, following the shortage of Liquefied Petroleum Gas induced by Gulf War 3.0.

The government took this decision to prioritise the supply of these cylinders for households. But most of the eateries are working at reduced capacity and they have switched to food items that don't take time to cook.

Though it looks like the "commercial LPG cylinder" issue is getting resolved, its ripple effects are being felt all across. The income of many daily wage workers would have been obviously affected. Businesses that supply vegetables and fruit to these restaurants have seen less sales, thereby impacting their income. 

So far at least, there has been no shortage of petrol or diesel.

The government is in talks with Iran to ensure that supplies aren't affected. However, it is not easy to get Iran to offer concessions; their strategy is to make life difficult for nations friendly to the US, hoping they will, in turn, pressure the US to end the war it started.

The US asking its allies to send warships to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz defies reason. Because this is a war no one other than Israel and the US wanted. The US didn't consult any of its allies before embarking on this adventure, despite being forewarned about the repercussions. It now appears that those warnings were prescient.

Iran has been debilitated to a great extent, no doubt. But the point being missed is that whatever has been destroyed can be rebuilt.

Clearly, the hypothesis upon which this war was launched has been disproved. The hope that the removal of the dictatorial and repressive Supreme Leader would bring the entire nation out onto the streets was horribly misplaced; essentially, regime change has not happened.

Secondly, the expectation that a weakened Iran would surrender has also failed to materialise. The US is looking for a deal that Iran simply does not want.

There are suspicions that Russia might be tacitly and covertly aiding Iran. While there is no evidence to back this, the theory rests on two conjectures: first, that a shattered Iran is still managing to send missiles and drones into Israel and the Gulf nations; and second, that Russia may be looking to pay back the West in kind for its involvement in Ukraine.

How ironic that a President who "ended so many wars around the world" is unable to end the one he started.

19 comments:

  1. Hari Om
    Keen observation... You talk of Gulf War 3, but the reality is that it is WW3 because, as you note, it affects so much of everything everywhere. Just because many nations are not combatants doesn't mean they are untouched by the shenanigans. My concern is that the Ukraine conflict is now very much unwatched as the world concerns itself with this latest spectacle... YAM xx

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    1. Very true, Yamini, it's as good as WWIII though it's only two countries against another. Its ripple effects are being felt across the globe. The more this prolongs, Ukraine will recede further to the background

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  2. I do like your final summary in the last paragraph. There is much I do not understand about the attack on Iran, especially why Iran is attacking other Muslim countries. Is that because they are friendly to the US, or a is it that the are different Muslims? Sunni or Shia?

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    1. ​Not that I am an expert. But from what I have read, religion is definitely one element. And another is to hurt the US allies. For example, Dubai airport is still getting targeted. The only reason, it's the world's busiest airport, or at least one of the busiest.

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  3. Authoritarians are going to authoritarian. That's the playbook. Start a war to distract from people getting proof the guy raped a bunch of girls. I mean, we already know he did. I don't know why he cares that the proof will come out.

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    1. And, the damage it's wreaking world over is so huge. How unfortunate... all that's happening

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  4. It’s a bit rich isn’t it, that Trump had a “feeling” that Iran might attack first so he embarked on a war not sanctioned by Congress and now that things are not going as planned wants other countries to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz? He is delusional, but also very dangerous.

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    1. Absolutely. Being the head of a country, one has to be a lot more responsible. Dangerous also because he is playing with the lives and livelihood of so many people around the world.

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  5. War is what happens when an orange runs a country like the USA the idiot who hates women unless they are stupid, uneducated and young. He stated a war to distract people and now can't stop it because he is too damn stupid

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    1. He referred to the war as a " little excursion" and on another occasion he said he may attack an oil site "just for fun".

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  6. The POTUS is making up the rules as he goes along, expecting that he can bully other nations to support him. It's not working!

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    1. I don't think these tactics work over the long term.

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  7. The way things are going, looks like gas and oil supplies may get hit again. It will be good if the world reduces its dependence on oil/gas and switches to cleaner power sources.

    I admire the guts of Iran as they fight powerful enemies. I hope Obama manages to get enough support to impeach the current US regime for starting a war that is totally unjustified.

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    1. Hi Rajesh - Targeting oil fields is a very dangerous escalation. I wonder how Iran is still managing to fire those missiles and drones.

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    2. Hi Rajesh - Targeting oil fields is a very dangerous escalation. I wonder how Iran is still managing to fire those missiles and drones.

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  8. Replies
    1. Hi Darla - I hope this conflict does not spiral out of control, and it ends before any further damage is done.

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  9. Waiting for this war to be over.
    Sad for all that has gone wrong for so many because of a few people.
    Hope all the eateries that are shut reopen soon

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    1. Hi Anita - Thank you for your comments. When someone like the President of the US takes a decision, it is any other person taking a decision. It affects the entire world.
      Yes, life has been derailed for so many people because of a few people.
      I too hope that the war comes to an end as soon as possible.

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