Time and Tide

Friday, May 12, 2017

James Comey: a tumultuous career ends

It was an early morning shocker today: President Trump fires FBI Director James Comey,

Only yesterday former acting Attorney General Sally Yates and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper were testifying before the Senate on the Russian involvement in the US presidential poll. The Senate hearing brought the Russian story more into focus.

James Comey has had a tumultuous tenure, not just as FBI director, but before that too.

In 2002, he led a probe into the pardoning of Marc Rich, an affluent global financier, by Bill Clinton on his last day as the President in 2001. Interestingly, one of the cases of Comey 15 years earlier as an attorney, was the successful prosecution of Rich for tax evasion. According to Time, "Despite evidence that several pardon recipients, including Rich, had connections to donations to Bill Clinton’s presidential library and Hillary Clinton’s 2000 Senate campaign, Comey found no criminal wrongdoing."

Then, in 2004, Comey, who was Acting Attorney General, had refused to sign some crucial papers sanctioning the NSA's domestic wiretapping programme. His signature was required for the programme to continue. Bush had to intervene to lift the hurdle.

Barack Obama brought him as FBI Director for a 10-year term in 2013. That was the time when wiretapping by was back in news, and Obama had backed the plan, saying only generic data was collected. But the fact that Comey, had once opposed wiretapping, didn't go unnoticed. But then, he said post 2004 Madrid blasts he has had a change of mind.

His most recent tryst with controversy was in the run-up to the US presidential elections. He was leading probe into the use of private servers by Hillary Clinton while she was the secretary of State. In 2016, he declared that though Clinton was careless, there was no criminal charges against her.

Quite expectedly the Trump campaign was critical of Comey.

Then came the dramatic turning point. In October, it was revealed that sleuths looking into the alleged sexting between Anthony Weiner had found on his computer emails between Hillary Clinton and his wife and Clinton aid Huma Abedin. He went public that the email controversy was being reopened.

Trump's view of Comey changed. He praised him.

It is widely believed that Comey's latest move might have cost Clinton the White House bid.

After Trump assumed charge, the focus shifted to Russian involvement in US poll. Though Trump cited poor progress into Clinton email probe, it's said that Comey sacking had much to do with increasing focus and progress in the probe into Trump's proximity to Russians in the poll campaign. Comey was getting too close for comfort.

Very interesting days for US politics in the coming days. I really doubt if this is going to die down. It will only get more intense, and probe will only widen and deepen.

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Emmanuel Macron is new President of France

(This was a live page)

0055
Marine Le Pen supporters are saying this is not a defeat. But another landmark in the march of their party. At the very start of Front National, it got around 0.4% votes. In 2002 they got around 17% and today it's around 35%. They say they will continue to move ahead.
Le Pen said the party will get a revamp. Already the present FN is far diluted version of the party her father founded in 1972. Is the original FN dead? Now how will the new FN look like?

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Emmanuel Macron makes a short and sober speech. Thanks voters. Assures the people that he would protect the country and keep it united.

Déclaration officielle. https://t.co/uLyRHujGm2
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) May 7, 2017

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France is at a turning point. Beginning of a new chapter in its political, economic and social life. We will await who Macron's Prime Minister will be. Macron will also need support in Parliament to rule; and remember all the major parties were rejected by the people in this election. The National Assembly election comes up in January, that will give a clearer picture what lies ahead for France in the four to five years from now.

0010
En Marche is the party that Macron belongs to. And that party is just one year old. Imagine such a party winning the Presidential election of a country like France, quite historic, a world record of sorts. Just shows the sort of polity that exists in France. I guess, many people would have voted for Macron to be on the safe side, in order to not make matters worse by voting for Le Pen.

0005
Nearly a third of voters cast blank ballots.. apparently the highest. .. That's the protest vote.

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Marine Le Pen concedes defeat

"Les Français ont choisi un nouveau Président de la République et ont voté pour la continuité." #Présidentielle2017
— Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) May 7, 2017

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🔴 #BREAKING - Emmanuel #Macron elected president of France (with 65.1% of the vote) pic.twitter.com/4Vod8NNBm4
— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) May 7, 2017

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According to the BBC Emmanuel Macron is the new President of France with 65.5% of votes

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Opinion polls have been putting Macron ahead of Le Pen... Let us see who the people have actually voted for. ... We will know in a few minutes.

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Polls will close in another five minutes; and in a few minutes we will get to know who the next President of France.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Don't be surprised if Le Pen wins on May 7

Marine Le Pen (Photo: CNBC)

Today, it's a week since the first round of French elections took place. Very much like what the opinion polls predicted, centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen came on top.

Today, it's one week to go for the second and final round. After many years, we have a very tightly contested race for the next occupant of Palais de l'Élysée (Elysee Palace), the official residence of the President of France.

It's widely speculated that Macron will defeat Le Pen. But as the poll date nears, there are increasing indications that it will not be a cake walk for him. An Odoxa survey, a few days ago showed that the gap between the two had narrowed, and Macron's share of vote could be 59%, down four points. Marine Le Pen stands at 41%, up four points from earlier in the week.

Another poll by Harris Interactive, said that Macron will win: 61% to 39%. But he has lost ground in the past week to Le Pen: six percentage points.

Why the going might be difficult for Macron

On May 23rd, Le Pen got just 5% votes in Paris, but in five adjoining regions -- Grand Est, Hauts-de-France, Normandie, Centre-Val de Loire and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté -- she was the winner.

Emmanuel Macron (Photo: New Statesman)

There is a lot of support for far right views among the youth. The flood of immigrants and the changes that is bringing about in the society isn't to everyone's liking. Extreme right is seeking exit of not just refugees but even people of non-European and sometimes even non-French origin. Le Pen's FN party is no longer extreme right-wing, but many who are right and beyond are likely to back Le Pen rather than Macron.

She has support from not just youth of 18 to 24 years, but also among the working class and lower middle class. And these are not demographic bands that get widely represented in urban media. A good example of this was when she engineered a publicity coup by meeting striking workers of the Whirlpool factory at the picket gate of their factory in Amiens, while Macron was holding talks with union officials in the comforts of the building. The factory is facing closure after a number of jobs were outsourced to Poland. She said she will not let the factory close.

There is massive unemployment. It's around 10%. While it is 4% in Germany, and 5% in the UK. And this has been agitating the youth. In Round 1 on April 23, she won in areas that had high unemployment and low wages.

Similarity to Trump

There is an unmistakable similarity to what played out in the US in the runup to the November poll in the US. Everyone predicted Hillary will win, but Trump kept gaining steadily in opinion polls, which the media largely didn't take seriously. Le Pen too is gaining steadily.

Trump appealed to a vast number of blue-collar workers. So is Le Pen. And that is a good number in France too.

Many people think Macron will be indecisive in these times when tough decisions would have to be taken. They think he would just be another of those business-class elite would just go with the not-too-well-working system.

And now we have reports that Russian hackers have broken into Macron's campaign, much like what we heard about the Democratic campaign in the US.

The quiet voters

What might prove crucial is how supporters of left and far-left would vote. Its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon who secured 19% votes last week, hasn't endorsed Macron. May 7 result will be affected if many his supporters decide to support Le Pen or even abstain, without voting for either.

Macron may have won Round 1, and all parties (except the Socialists) might be uniting behind him to prevent FN from coming to power. But does that imply that people too would unite similarly?

In other words, many voters who might theoretically be against Le Pen could support her. But since that's going to be "very politically incorrect" for them, they might not talk about it.

How ironic it would be, if most of Left abstains, and that catapults Marine Le Pen to Palais de l'Élysée.