Monday, February 28, 2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine - Two questions

Screenshot of a video on BBC 

The way Russia was amassing troops on Ukraine's borders, and warnings by the US that "an attack was a possibility", what we are seeing now was quite a certainty.

There are a couple of questions for which I am yet to get convincing answers.

1) The move to get Ukraine into the NATO has been going on for now close to a decade. Why didn't the NATO admit Ukraine, if they really wanted to? Being a full-fledged NATO member is far different from just being an ally receiving economic and military assistance from the West.

By giving this crystal-clear signal to Russia that Ukraine is their ally, the West was also implicitly telling Russia: "We are at your doorstep."

After all these years, Ukraine has been practically left alone to defend itself. Though of course they are getting support from the West.

2) If you remember, in the days preceding the launch of the Russian attack, while the US and its West European allies were constantly talking about the fears of an "impending Russian invasion", Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself was strangely cool and calm. 

In fact, multiple reports from Ukrainian capital Kyiv used to speak of how everything is absolutely normal; and no one believing that a Russian invasion would ever happen.

With all sophisticated intelligence-gathering mechanisms we have today, it's highly unlikely that Zelenskyy didn't know that an invasion would take place. They should have acknowledged that in some form.

That would have given foreigners a real picture of what was unfolding, and they could have left for their home country, or foreign governments could have evacuated their citizens well before things deteriorated to this extent.

Why did Zelenskyy give the impression that nothing untoward was ever going to happen? Was it part of a strategic game plan?

Now with airspace closed, evacuation flights are taking off from neighbouring countries. But not all are close to the borders. 

There is a reason I am saying this. Thousands of Indians, mainly medical students, are trapped in underground bunkers in Ukraine. With no basic amenities, and dire shortage of food and water, it's a physical and emotional trauma for them.

Of course a few hundreds have been brought back but thousands are still trapped. One medical student was pleading: "Please get us out of here before we die."

While I type this, we have news that Russian President Vladimir Putin has put his nation's nuclear deterrent on 'special alert'. This is obviously in response to the assistance that the West is giving Ukraine, which seems to be slowing down the Russian progress. 

Earlier today, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told Sky News that the conflict would last a number of years.

That means the suffering isn't going to end to anytime soon.

16 comments:

  1. Why didn’t NATO admit Ukraine? There is a process and criteria to follow. The requirements for countries to join NATO are many. Too long to write here. It will be a blog post by itself. Ukraine did not meet any of those requirements. NATO does not want Ukraine with a simmering conflict with unresolved territorial disputes. If Ukraine is admitted then NATO absorbs that conflict. (My 2 cents worth.)

    Why Ukrainian President was cool and calm. My personal opinion. It may be because not to panic his own citizens.

    ReplyDelete
  2. At the same time, if the members "really" wanted to, they could have admitted Ukraine in NATO.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SG - Thanks for that explanation. Now I understand that.
      Now I am worried if things will spiral out of control.
      Hope not. And fighting will end without loss of more lives.

      Delete
  3. Hari OM
    As SG says, the process is not straightforward. It is also important to understand that there have been ongoing conflicts in eastern Ukaraine for several years; both these things are summarised well in this article, (from about six weeks back). The president is a media personality, so knows well how to 'put on a front'. That is to say, he is not a 'panic merchant'... and of course, it cannot be ignored that he may indeed have his (or his Ukraine's) own agenda to play out.

    Either way, it's miserable news... YAM xx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Yamini - Thanks for sharing that article. Shall go through it.
      You have put the whole thing in context very well. This issue not something of recent origin. It has a long history.
      Irrespective of whoever is right or wrong, what is playing out now is extremely distressing.
      I just hope that the whole thing doesn't spiral out of control. And the fighting stops soon without loss of more lives.

      Delete
  4. I'm sure there are answers to your questions somewhere, but I won't pretend to know them. I thought it was pretty clear that an invasion was imminent, though. But that's from the media where I'm at. I'm sure that's different in different parts of the world.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think, instead of solving it thru other ways, Russia launching a war has made it the new country for many to hate. Even in neutral or friendly countries like India, people do not support what Russia is doing.

    Bad move. Might just give an excuse to the west to intervene more directly.

    Destination Infinity

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Rajesh - True. Hope things get better as soon as possible, without loss of more lives.

      Delete
  6. I am aware of that which you have written of here Pradeep. I am very very interested in the commentary from followers.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I believe that NATO cannot admit a country that is involved in any kind of border dispute. I also believe there are other reasons, the NATO states did not believe Ukraine qualified as a member; just as it has not qualified to be a member of the EU. The last point is that Russia would probably have acted earlier had Ukraine tried to join Nato. Putin has long voiced his concerns about being encircled by Nato states. Ukraine was a buffer, added to which he believes Ukraine 'belongs' to Russia anyway. Like others here, I think there's more beneath this than what we've heard on the news. As always, though, the innocent are the victims and I'm very sorry for all your trapped countrymen, Pradeep. That must be terrible for them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Vallypee - Thank you. Yes, the issue is a very complex, long-standing one. Today one Indian student died in shelling in Kharkiv. The first Indian casualty. I hope things get better soon.

      Delete
    2. I'm so very, very sorry to hear that, Pradeep. It's heartbreaking that students from other countries are trapped and dying because of this awful situation.

      Delete
  8. Hi Pradeep - you've asked interesting questions - I've emailed you an article. I don't fully understand - though am appalled at one man, a megalomaniac, setting his people to kill others ... ghastly - too light a word. With thoughts for Ukraine - Hilary

    ReplyDelete
  9. It's all so awful. I feel so bad for all those people being hurt and terrorized in Ukraine. I really despise all those government officials involved.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Oh, how horrible. Thank you for sharing. For what it's worth, I'll specifically add these students and their families to my prayer list.

    ReplyDelete

I appreciate your comments. Thank you.
If your email ID is enabled in the Blogger profile, I'll reply to your comments via email because you won't have to come back here or look through email notifications to read my reply.
I might copy-paste the replies here if I feel they might be of interest to others as well.
For everyone else, I'll reply here.